CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-07-21T01:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20932/-1
CME Note: A faint, full halo CME seen in SOHO running difference imagery that seems to be associated with a C5.6-class flare occurring around the Sun's center disk from AR3060 and possibly combines with CME 2022-07-21T01:36Z, a brighter CME seen to the NE in SOHO coronagraph imagery. A Stereo-Ahead coronagraph data gap at this time increases the uncertainty of the analysis. While the halo is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus any Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T06:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
CME three-dimensional parameters (by Ice-cream Cone model): main direction: N21E02 angular width: 120 degree velocity: 870 km/s first appearance at C2: 2022-07-21 01:48 predicted CME shock arrival time : 2022-07-23T06:00 Confidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 70% Kp Range Lower Limit: 5 Kp Range Upper Limit: 7Lead Time: 25.33 hour(s)
Difference: -3.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2022-07-22T01:08Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy